Yo, Ho, Ho…A Pirate’s Life for Me?

For anyone who thought pirates were a thing of the past—confined to Disney theme parks and Johnny Depp movies—you haven’t been paying attention!  Although the “golden age” or piracy ended by the mid-eighteenth century, modern day piracy has been growing in recent years, especially off the coast of Somalia and in the Straits of Malacca.  There’s even a modern-day pirate city—Eyl, Somalia —where pirates store their captured ships and plundered cargo while awaiting ransoms demanded for their return.  Pirates generally demand between $300,000 and $1 million for the return of the ship and its crew.

But over the weekend, Somali pirates struck a far larger target.  A Ukrainian ship destined for Kenya was carrying 33 T-72 tanks, other “military hardware,” “an assortment of spare parts for use by different branches of the Kenyan military,” and “a substantial quantity of ammunition,” according to Kenyan government spokesperson and the Ukrainian foreign ministry.  The U.S. Navy is monitoring the situation, and Russian naval vessels are heading to the area.  The pirates are demanding $20 million for the return of the ship and its cargo—a bargain compared to their initial $35 million offer.

The fact that the pirates operate so freely is largely a function of the collapse of the Somali state.  Somalia has effectively been controlled by warlords, and has been without an effective national government since 1991, when a civil war tore through the country.  The internationally-recognized government of Somalia has been forced to meet in neighboring Kenya due to violence and political instability, allowing local pirates and warlords to reign free.  In June, the United Nations authorized member states to send warships into Somalia’s territorial waters to tackle piracy, but little progress has been made so far, as the most recent seizure suggests.

Peter Leeson’s article, cleverly entitled “An-arrgh-chy: The Law and Economics of Pirate Organization” contrasts the political economy of historical pirates with that of today.  It’s also a fun read!

Five Stories You Might Have Missed

John McCain decided to participate in Friday’s presidential debate, which was predictably dominated by questions on the economy.  The status of the U.S. economy continues to garner significant international attention, but other stories also developed this week.

1. In perhaps the most important development last week, Congress reached a deal on a $700 billion bailout package for the financial sector.   Progress towards an agreement had collapsed last week after House Republicans withdrew their support for President Bush’s initial proposal and Democrats refused to move forward without their support.  The impact of the financial collapse (and bailout) in the United States has yet to be felt, but already some—including Germany’s finance minister, Peer Steinbrück—are arguing that the crisis means the U.S. has lost its “financial superpower status.”

2. In the most recent development in souring Russian-American relations, Russia and Venezuela moved to cooperate more closely in areas of energy policy.  This follows on the announcement that Russian naval vessels and aircraft would participate in Venezuelan war games in the southern Caribbean.  Since 2005, Venezuela has used a portion of its oil wealth to purchase more than $4 billion worth of weapons systems, including fighter aircraft, helicopters, anti-aircraft systems, and armored personnel carriers, from Russia. 

3. The vast expanses of space are becoming a bit more crowded, as China and India expand their own space programs.  China launched the country’s third manned space mission on Friday.  The mission culminated with a successful space walk over the weekend.  Meanwhile, India is planning its own launch intended to map the surface of the moon.  According to some observers, the Chinese and Indian governments are engaged in a new space race, echoing the U.S.-Soviet rivalry of the 1960s.  

4. On Saturday, the Syrian capital Damascus was rocked by a car bomb which killed 17 and injured 44 people.   Although no group has yet claimed responsibility, suspicions have fallen on resurgent Sunni fundamentalist groups.

5. South Africa’s president Thabo Mbeki abruptly resigned last week.  Although the African National Congress’ leader Jacob Zuma is likely to be elected president in the upcoming election, Kgalema Motlanthe, former guerrilla and union leader, was selected as the interim president on Thursday.  Motlanthe says his agenda will focus on maintaining economic and political stability.

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The Future of the U.S. Global Position

A forthcoming report by Thomas Fingar, the U.S. intelligence community’s top analyst, has received little attention, but heralds some dramatic changes for the United States in the near future.  According to the Washington Post, Fingar’s report, entitled Global Trends 2025, observes that, “The U.S. will remain the preeminent power, but that American dominance will be much diminished” over the next 15-17 years, highlighting in particular the deterioration of U.S. leadership in “political, economic and arguably, cultural arenas.”  The major challenges?  Globalization, climate change, and regional destabilization brought about by shortages of food, water, and energy.  What’s more, in Fingar’s assessment, the extensive military resources of the United States will be our “least significant” asset because “nobody is going to attack us massive conventional forces.”

Fingar predicts a world in which the United States’ position is gradually eroded as other regional powers, including Europe and China, rise.  He also envisions a declining role for multilateral institutiosn like the United Nations and the World Bank.

Interestingly, the major concerns preoccupying U.S. foreign and military policy over the past eight years receive scant attention in the report.  Instead, Fingar emphasizes the impact of growing environmental crises on regional stability, particularly in the developing world.  Climate change and its associated conditions, including food shortages, drought, floods, mass migration, and political and economic upheaval—not al-Qaeda and Iran—represent the most significant policy challenges in Fingar’s assessment.

The award for best response to the report has to go to the Climate Progress blog, which says “Duh!”…but in a good way.  More generally, however, Fingar’s report does encourage us to rethink our understanding of security and foreign policy.  Is IR as a discipline too focused on military security and national foreign policy?  Do the (neo)realist and (neo)liberal approaches to IR help us to understand contemporary challenges in a meaningful way?  Or is it time for us to rethink our approaches?

Want to know more?  Read Fingar’s speech to the INSA Analytic Transformation Conference.  Unfortunately the report itself is not yet available for public consumption.

Five Stories You Might Have Missed

Events this week have been dominated by the continuing crisis in the financial sector and the chaotic week in world markets. 

1.  In an effort to address the ongoing financial crisis, the Securities and Exchange Commission took the unusual step of banning short sales of some companies’ stock.  Announced on Friday and confirmed by similar bans in the United Kingdom, France, Portugal, Ireland, Australia, and other major markets, the move was intended to prevent future downward pressure on financial stocks.  According to an FT analysis, many hedge funds may be hurt by the move.  In an even more dramatic move, the Bush administration has proposed a $700 billion relief package for Wall Street.  The package, which will require the ceiling on the national debt be increased from $10.6 trillion to $11.3 trillion, would be the largest rescue package in the history of the country.  

2. On Saturday, South African President Thabo Mbeki agreed to step down from office after his ruling party, the African National Congress, called for his resignation.  It is widely expected that Jacob Zuma will replace Mbeki as the new President of South Africa.  There are considerable questions about what will happen to South Africa’s economic policy under a Zuma Presidency.  Mbeki moved the ANC’s economic policy towards a more open, free-market system at odds with the party’s strong union and activist base.  It remains to be seen in what direction Zuma will steer Africa’s largest economy.

3. Relations between the United States and its South American neighbors took a hit last week, as Bolivia and Venezuela expelled the U.S. ambassadors.  The United States responded by expelling the Bolivian and Venezuelan ambassadors.

4. On Thursday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appeared to making an overture towards Israel, confirming his close ally and vice president Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei’s assertion that Iran was “a friend of [the] Israeli people.”  The FT speculates that the move may be part of a broader strategy of improving relations with the West.  However, Ahmadinejad’s history of calling for the destruction of Israel and denial of the holocaust suggests that he may have a great deal more work to do if that is indeed his intention.  Further, Ahmadinejad’s move was countered on Friday by a statement from Iran’s supreme spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said it was “wrong” to claim that Iran could be a friend of Israel.

5. On Sunday, militants in Nigeria called an end to a week-long series of attacks against oil facilities in the Niger River Delta region.  The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) had claimed responsibility for the attacks, which it claims are part of its effort to establish local control over the region’s oil resources.

Good News Out of Rwanda

Most Americans know only one thing about Rwanda: it was the site one of the worst episodes of genocide in the history of the world in 1994, when Hutus killed an estimated 800,000 Tutsi.  Most people couldn’t tell you the reason for the outbreak of violence or what has happened in Rwanda since 1994.

But a bit of promising news emerged from Rwanda this week: Following election on Monday, Rwanda will be the first country in the world with a parliament dominated by women.  President Paul Kagame’s ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front, the political party which emerged from the rebel group which brought the genocide to an end, looks to win its second national election since 1994.  Preliminary results indicate that the ruling RPF will retain at least 75% of the seats in parliament.  More impressively, the results also indicate that at least 55% of the members of parliament will be women. 

How does this compare to other countries? 

1. Rwanda: 48.8%
2. Sweden: 45.3%
3. Norway: 37.9%
4. Finland: 37.5%
5. Denmark: 36.9%
6. Netherlands: 36.7%
7. Cuba: 36%
   Spain: 36%
8. Costa Rica: 35.1%
9. Argentina: 35%
10. Mozambique: 34.8%

And where does the United States fall?  According to the International Parliamentary Union, the United States ranks 69th worldwide, with women comprising 16.8% of all members of Congress.  And nine countries (Belize, Micronesia, Nauru, Oman, Palau, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu) have no women in parliament.

Five Stories You Mihgt Have Missed

The big stories in the United States this week were the landfall of hurricane Ike and the impact of the failure of Lehman Brothers investment bank.  Here are other important stories that you might have missed during the past week:

1. On Wednesday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, announced it would cut production by 520,000 barrels per day in an attempt to keep oil prices above $100 per barrel.  The move was quickly criticized by the International Energy Agency and the White House.  The cut, OPEC’s first since December 2006, comes as oil prices have fallen to just over $100 per barrel, a decrease of more than 30% from peak prices several months ago.

2. On Saturday night, a series of bomb blasts tore through New Delhi.  The five explosions killed 25 and wounded more than 90.  An additional four explosive devices were found before they detonated.  Although no group has yet claimed responsibility, police believe that the bombings may be linked to one of India’s banned Muslim groups, such as the Students Islamic Movement or the Indian Mujahideen.

3. The longstanding political impasse in Zimbabwe appeared to be diffused last week when the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Popular Front (ZANU-PF) and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) reached a power-sharing deal.  The details of the deal have not yet been released, but both sides view the new government of national unity as a victory.  Despite the agreement, concerns over the country’s political stability and economic collapse remain.  Inflation in Zimbabwe is currently estimated to be more than 10 million percent.

4. On Thursday, the Financial Times reported that the Chinese government had used its foreign exchange reserve funds to pressure Costa Rica to sever ties with Taiwan and establish relations with Beijing. If confirmed, the move would mark the most dramatic use of China’s $1.8 trillion forex reserves as a tool of Chinese foreign policy.

5. In an interview with Charlie Gibson last week, Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin declared on Thursday that the United States would be obligated to go to war with Russia if Georgia were a member of Nato.  McCain has advocated a more aggressive stance towards Russia over the past several months, but Palin’s announcement was the first time the idea of direct confrontation between the two Cold War rivals has been specifically mentioned.

Who Pays for Climate Change?

In his blog, FT analyst Tony Barber rightly pointed to the gap between EU climate change talk and the development of new climate change policy. Thankfully we’re now generally beyond the “is climate change real” debate, and even the most ardent critic (the United States and the Bush Administration) now admit that climate change is real and that we must do something about it.  The problem, of course, centers on two key questions: (1) who will pay the costs of mitigation and adaption, estimated to be between €230 billion to €614 billion for the European Union; and (2) how far climate change mitigation should go.

The European Union has made a great deal of progress in its climate change talk.  Most member states have made good progress towards meeting their Kyoto goals.  But much of this progress is illusory.  Germany, for example, has generally met its targets due to a dramatic decline in the industrial output in the former east.  Presumable recession is not a desirable way to satisfy Kyoto targets.  But real progress may be much more difficult to achieve.  There is low hanging fruit to be gathered.  But beyond the easy (and cost-efficient) solutions, how much is Europe likely to be willing to pay to address climate change.  And more importantly, how much is the United States willing to pay?  Or is the American way of life still non-negotiable?

Top 10 Policy Mistakes

The presidential campaign has begun to heat up following the Democratic and Republican Party conventions.  Recent polls place McCain ahead of Obama for the first time in the head-to-head race.  Reflecting the closeness of the race, each candidate is promising to move away from politics as usual.  But their proposals have important implications for global politics.  In part, the relative size and power of the United States in the world makes this necessarily the case.  As the world’s largest oil consumer, U.S. oil policy directly affects world prices, thereby affecting the lives of millions of people in the developing world through higher or lower energy prices, for example.

Demonstrating sound judgment is therefore vital.  This concern has been at the heart of both candidate’s critique of the other side.  McCain’s criticism of Obama, for example, had until recently centered on the concern that he was too inexperienced to understand international relations.  Obama’s critique of McCain has been that he is part of the Republican majority in Washington DC for years, and that the policies adopted by that majority have not been good for the country.

This week, Foreign Policy magazine published its top 10 bad policy ideas for both parties’ presidential candidates, arguing that each candidate has made some important mistakes in their political platforms. 

For McCain’s mistakes, it listed

1. Creating a League of Democracies
2. Calling for a Gas-Tax Holiday
3. Requiring a Three-Fifths Majority to Raise Taxes
4. Flip-flopping on Immigration
5. Drilling Our Way Out of the Oil Crisis
6. Balancing the Budget through Victory in the War on Terror
7. Making the Bush Tax Cuts Permanent
8. Supporting Abstinence-Only Education and the Global Gag Rule
9. Calling for 45 New Nuclear Power Plants
10. Backing Cap-and-Trade Without a 100 Percent Auction.

Obama’s mistakes:

1. Renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement
2. Opposing the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement
3. Talking Openly About Bombing Pakistan
4. Sitting Down with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
5. Pushing the Patriot Employer Act
6. Promoting Coal-to-Liquid Fuels
7. Eliminating Income Taxes for Seniors Making Under $50,000
8. Boosting Ethanol Subsidies
9. Taxing Oil Companies Extra
10. Opening the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

I’ll leave it to you to decide which candidates’ mistakes are more forgivable.

Five Stories You Might Have Missed

The big news this week was John McCain’s surprise choice for running mate choice: Sarah Palin, governor of Alaska.  There were many developments outside the United States and its presidential race, however.  Here are a five important stories you might have missed:

1. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has called for new elections, which will take place on October 14.  Harper’s Conservative Party has ruled Canada as a minority government since February 2006.  The election is expected to be closely contested, as the Liberal Party, under the leadership of Stéphane Dion, mount their challenge.  With Canada’s economy tittering on the brink of recession, the economy figures to be the central issue of the campaign.  The outcome of the election may also signal a fundamental shift in Canadian politics, as the Bloc Quebecois appears to be losing its regional support in Quebec, creating the possibility of a Conservative majority in the national legislature.

2. There were two important developments in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute last week.  On Wednesday, the Palestinian Strategy Study Group released a report which indicated that Palestinians may be willing to endorse a bi-national state with Israel should the U.S.-backed two-state solution fail.  The proposal would mark a dramatic change in the structure and intended goal of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.  In an unrelated development, Israeli President Shimon Peres on Friday called for direct talks between Israel and Syria to address outstanding issues.  The two countries been engaged in mediated indirect talks for a number of years, but relations between the two have generally been poor since 1947.  Normalization of relations between Syria and Israel would have to be a central component of any comprehensive settlement of the Palestinian question.

3. In a not-so-subtle confirmation of the flood of divestment from the country following the conflict over South Ossetia, the Russian central bank was forced on Thursday to intervene to support the rouble.  According to some estimates, as much as $21 billion in foreign currency has been withdrawn from Russia over the past several weeks, leading to a dramatic decline in the value of the rouble.  This represents the worst currency collapse for Russia since the 1998 crisis.  But despite the crisis, the Russian government still have the third largest currency reserve in the world—estimated at some $582 billion—thanks in large part to the dramatic increase in oil and natural gas prices over the past few years.

4. In Paksitan, Asif Ali Zardari of the Pakistan People’s Party won Saturday’s presidential elections as expected.  Zardari, who is the widow of assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, now faces a number of challenges: reinforcing the fledgling democracy amidst growing political and economic instability, normalizing relations with the west in the face of strong opposition in key regions of the country, and establishing a stronger degree of national unity while addressing growing violence within Pakistan. 

5. Talks between Zimbabwe’s main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and the ruling ZANU-PF suffered their most serious setback to date last week.  The MDC announced it had lost faith in negotiations intended to bring about a power sharing agreement, accusing South African President Thabo Mbeki, who is mediating the negotiations, of trying to force through a deal which would see ZANU-PF’s Robert Mugabe retain political power.  The MDC also refuses to sign an agreement under which Mugabe would retain control of the country’s security forces, which they contend have been used for the political gain of the ruling party.