Iranian Election Update

The British think tank Chatham House published an analysis of the Iranian election results, suggesting that the official outcome suffered from a number of irregularities, including:

  1. Voter turnout rates that exceeded 100% in two conservative-leaning districts.
  2. The dramatic increase in voter turnout was unlikely to break so heavily in favor of Ahmadi-Nejad, given previous election results.
  3. In one-third of all provinces, official election results would require that Ahmadi-Nejad win all centrist and conservative voters and nearly half of all reformist voters–an unlikely outcome to say the least.
  4. In previous elections and in pre-election polling, Ahmadi-Nejad was polling very poorly in rural areas. But in this election, Ahmadi-Nejad won all rural districts throughout the country. Again, a very unlikely outcome.

The report is certainly likely to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election’s outcome, and could further fuel protests that have been ongoing for the last week. The report is well worth a read.

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