Tag Archives: Malaysia

The South China Sea Arms Race

The Financial Times last week carried a story discussing the increasing level of arms purchases by several Southeast Asian states. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Singapore recently placed an order for two new submarines and twelve fighter jets to supplement previous deliveries which included six frigates and 32 fighter aircraft. All told, between 2005 and 2009, Singapore’s spending on arms imports increased 146 percent. Not to be outdone, Indonesia increased its spending by 84 percent, and Malaysia increased its spending by 722 percent (and no, that’s not a typo).Vietnam and Thailand have also announced intensions to increase military spending.

Though many have not publically stated the reason for the increases, most observers point to growing tensions over disputed territories in the South China Sea and dramatic increases in Chinese military spending as the primary causes.

The current South China Sea arms race provides a classic example of the security dilemma [glossary], in international relations. From the perspective of each individual actor, the rational course of action is to increase defense spending in order to facilitate greater security. However, the increase in the armament level of one state leads neighboring states to feel less secure. They therefore increase their own defense spending, leading to a regional arms race. The end result is that, while pursuing rational actions intended to increase their own security individually, all states wind up feeling less secure than they would have felt absent the increase in total military spending.

Five Stories You Might Have Missed

Poor economic news continues to flow out of most of the world. In the United States, new jobless figures released last week show unemployment up to 8.1 percent, the highest rate in 25 years. Malaysian exports have collapsed, placing pressure on the government to find a solution to the ongoing crisis. And the banking sector in South Africa, Canada, and Mexico (among others) continues to face problems, and the International Monetary Fund is urging greater coordination to address the crisis. 

But the Chinese government is asserting that things are improving there already, forecasting 8 percent growth this year and denying the economy is in a downturn. If they’re correct, perhaps we’re starting to see the beginning of the end of the global economic crisis. I, however, remain cautious.

Here’s important five stories from the previous week:

1. Hillary Clinton continued her charm offensive in Europe last week. After shifting to a more diplomatic strategy with Syria, the new Obama administration has announced its intention to conclude a new arms control agreement with Russia by the end of the year. The effort to improve diplomatic relations with both Syria and Russia are seen as part of a wider effort by the Obama administration to distance itself from the hardline policies of the previous president.

2. A suicide bomb attack against Baghdad’s main police academy killed 28 people on Sunday. Although the number of attacks has declined since the height of the sectarian violence in 2003, the attack nevertheless illustrates the challenges that Iraq continues to face.  On Thursday, a car bomb attack in Babil province—a region that has enjoyed relative peace for months—killed 12 people and injured 40. 

3.  Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad on Saturday announced his intention to resign. Fayyad was appointed by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas after Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. But Fayyad was a controversial figure, and Hamas regularly criticized Fayyad for being too closely aligned with the United States and Israel. Fayyad’s resignation is seen as an important step towards the development of a unity government for Palestine, which itself is viewed as an important first step in the Middle East peace process.

4. The Good Friday peace accord in Northern Ireland faces its most serious challenge since it was signed in 1998, after two British soldiers were killed Saturday night in an attack by Irish nationalist groups opposed to the agreement. Though no group has yet claimed responsibility, several groups, including the Real IRA, the Continuity IRA, and the Irish National Liberation Army, oppose Sinn Fein’s effort to develop a powersharing agreement and peace deal for Northern Ireland.

5. Last week, President Hugo Chávez stepped up his effort to nationalize foreign agricultural producers in Venezuela. After last month’s referendum, which granted Chávez the right to remain in office indefinitely, Chávez announced his intention to move forward with the nationalization of key industries, including oil, steel, and cement. Chávez accuses foreign agricultural producers of exacerbating the country’s economic problems.

And in a bonus story for this week:

6. Zimbabwe’s Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai was injured in a car accident on Saturday, and Susan Tsvangirai, his wife of 31 years, was killed. According to witnesses, a truck swerved from the oncoming lane and struck his car, the middle in a convoy of three cars, head on. Some within Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change have accused Zimbabwe’s President, Robert Mugabe, of masterminding the attack in an effort to eliminate his political rival. Although Tsvangirai has since said he did not believe the accident was part of a broader plot by Mugabe to eliminate him, Tsvangirai did accept an offer from Botswana’s President to recouperate across the border, fueling speculation about the nature of the accident. Zimbabwe’s national unity government remains an unstable coalition of rival groups, and the government has been unable to effectively address the ongoing economic crisis there.

Five Stories You Might Have Missed

The major news networks yesterday were giving virtually non-stop coverage to the upcoming inauguration of President-elect Barack Obama.  Obama is already on his journey to Washington DC for Tuesday’s inauguration.  In his weekly radio address, President-elect Obama warned of the challenges facing the nation, the most critical of which include unpopular wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a global economic crisis.  Despite the challenges, however, the television news networks focused extensively on the pomp and circumstance of the ceremonial inauguration itself. 

Here’s five important stories you might have missed among all the ceremony:

1.  Hamas and Israel reached a one-week ceasefire on Sunday, temporarily halting the three-week old conflict which has already resulted in more than 1,100 Palestinian and 13 Israeli deaths.  The political fallout of the conflict also looks to be severe, with Qatar and Mauritania announcing they would terminate political and economic ties with Israel over the conflict. With the largest Muslim and Jewish comminutes in Europe, France is also bracing for an increase in sectarian violence between Jewish and Muslim communities.

2. After signaling that a deal had been reached last week and then seeing that deal collapse, Russia and Ukraine announced on Saturday that they had again reached an agreement which would permit Russia to resume natural gas shipments to the European Union.  Russian natural gas supplies are normally shipped through pipelines in Ukraine, and these shipments account for approximately twenty percent of the E.U.’s total natural gas consumption.  In the new one-year agreement, Russia offers Ukraine a 20 percent discount on natural gas prices in exchange for a promise not to increase transit fees for using the pipeline.  Some countries in Eastern Europe have been without heat for twelve days as Russia and Ukraine struggled to come to a solution to the standoff.  But political wrangling in Ukraine could still derail the deal.

3.  Ethiopian troops completed their planned withdrawal from Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, on Thursday.  The withdrawal raises concerns about the viability of Somalia’s pro-Western government and the increasing influence of Islamic extremists in the country.  Ethiopia threatened to withdraw its forces several months ago, complaining that the international community had not provided sufficient resources to support its mission and the government of Somalia.  In the absence of Ethiopian or other military forces, it is feared that Somalia may expand its reputation as a home to Islamic terrorists.

4.  There is growing speculation that Fidel Castro, former president of Cuba, may be in grave health.  Castro has not appeared in public since July 2006, and has recently cancelled a number of meetings with foreign dignitaries.  In a public speech on Sunday, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, one of Castro’s closest allies, appeared to offer his eulogy, noting “That Fidel is his uniform, who walked the streets and town late at night, hugging the people, won’t return.  That will remain in memories.”  Fidel’s brother, Raúl Castro, has served as president of Cuba since July 2006, when his brother was forced to resign for health reasons.  Since then, the economy of Cuba has struggled, the extensive welfare protections afforded workers have begun to decline, and the government has begun to promise greater openness and transparency.

5.  A closely fought by-election in Malaysia has been won by the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party, part of the country’s Islamic opposition.  While the results will not alter the balance of power in the national parliament, they do raise concerns about the ability of the incoming National Front government to effectively govern.  

And for two bonus stories this week:

6.  In Japan, sharp divisions are appearing in the Liberal Democratic Party, the party which has ruled Japan for all but 11 months in the past 53 years.  Yoshimi Watanabe, who served as state minister for administrative reform from 2007 to 2008, tendered his resignation from the party last week amid the declining popularity of the party with the electorate.  The opposition Democratic Party of Japan appears well-positioned to win the next national election, which must take place by September. 

7.  Iran’s ex-Prime Minister, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, may run as a candidate in the presidential elections scheduled for June.  Mousavi is widely seen as a reformist candidate possessing the popularity to potentially defeat incumbent president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad.

Five Stories You Might Have Missed

Beginning Sunday, I’ll be providing a regular feature entitled “Five Stories You Might Have Missed.”  The entry will highlight five important news stories from the previous week which, while important and interesting, may not have received much attention from the media.  But until next Sunday, here’s a short sample of what you can look forward to:

1.  Tensions in France over the status of the country’s Muslim minority and the position of Muslims in French society continue to intensify.  On Friday, the highest court in France rejected citizenship to a Muslim woman from Morocco claiming she was “insufficiently assimilated” into French society (LINK THIS).  She has lived in France since 2000, and her husband and three child children are already French citizens.

2. A report prepared by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released on Thursday projected global demand for oil will increase by 50% between 2008 and 2030.  The main cause of the increase: lots of new cars, especially in the developing world.  With oil prices hovering around the $135-140 per barrel range, such an increase in demand could drive oil prices much, much higher.

3. On Wednesday, Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was arrested on charges of sodomy.  According to the Ibrahim’s People’s Justice Party, the arrest was retribution for the party’s success in the country’s March elections.  Malaysia’s Prime Minister, Abdullah Badawi, is under pressure to resign in the face of strong opposition and poor election result.  So far, Badawi has declined to step down, but has promised to leave office in 2010.

4. Talks continue between the government of Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai’s opposition party in Zimbabwe.  After Tsvangirai was forced out of the run-off election for the country’s presidency as a result of political violence last month, South Africa’s leadership has tried to broker a compromise government which would see political power shared between the two rivals.  The one sticking point: Mugabe does not want to share power.  That’s a tough position from which to negotiate a power sharing agreement.

5. And finally, in other news of political instability, Turkey’s government has charged 86 people with plotting to overthrow the government.  Turkey’s historically secular government was replaced by a conservative religious government after the elections last year.  The military, however, remains largely secular and suspicious of the government.