“Islam’s supposed hostility to democracy is often cited as the cause of authoritarian persistence in the Middle East and North Africa, but oil
is a far more credible culprit. Oil has sustained the rule of tyrants in the
region, whether it was Gaddafi, the shah of Iran, Saddam Hussein or the princes of Saudi Arabia. In place of taxes – and the calls for democracy and representative government they usually give rise to – the Gaddafi regime used oil profits to maintain its power. Flush with cash, the only real requirement it needed to fulfill was to adequately fund a security and military force that could silence any signs of dissent.”
Some analysts suggest the resource curse is all but inevitable. An NPR report observes that “If the resource curse is inevitable, then you might imagine that Libya has much worse odds than Egypt at becoming a real democracy. Some leader will eventually take over those oil wells, capture all that wealth and become yet another despot.”
But other observers are optimistic, and they focus on the power of transparency to overcome the government’s monopoly on information and wealth production. In an op-ed piece at the Huffington Post, U.S. Senators Dick Lugar and Benjamin Cardin tout an International Governmental Organization that is dedicated to overcoming the resource curse:
“In recent years, a number of international actors — including responsible oil and mining companies and citizens groups — have begun to tackle the resource curse problem by calling for greater disclosure and accountability of revenues through voluntary participation in the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. An Oslo-based international organization, EITI requires member countries and the companies they host to publish payments and receipts, and to have the results audited and certified. The voluntary EITI approach has been enthusiastically endorsed by the World Bank, the IMF, and the G-20 group of major economies.”
What do you think? Does the resource curse provide a convincing explanation for the persistence of autocratic regimes in the Middle East and North Africa? Or is this an overly simplistic argument? What is the likelihood that Libya’s new leaders can create a democratic and prosperous state, and why?